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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Bodrum FK welcome Kasımpaşa to Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Bodrum FK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Bodrum FK have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bodrum FK 1.00 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bodrum FK, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 28% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 28% versus Kasımpaşa 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 28% | Kasımpaşa 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.16 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.555 / defence 0.790 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.324 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.186. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.555 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Bodrum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Bodrum FK's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Bodrum FK games / 63 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 34% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 37%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bodrum FK 20% | Kasımpaşa 80%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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