🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 36%, yet in-form Göztepe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bodrum FK vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Göztepe travel to Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu to take on Bodrum FK. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Bodrum FK — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodrum FK at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Bodrum FK are significantly better at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Göztepe are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bodrum FK, 1 for Göztepe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Göztepe winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.

Göztepe in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 33% versus Göztepe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 33% | Göztepe 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.25 xG and Göztepe 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.616 / defence 0.906 | Göztepe attack 1.080 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.240. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.616 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Bodrum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Bodrum FK games / 21 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 36% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 34%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Göztepe 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodrum FK at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Göztepe (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 30% | Göztepe 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights