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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Bodrum FK take on Eyüpspor.

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Match Analysis

Bodrum FK host Eyüpspor at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Bodrum FK — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodrum FK at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bodrum FK are significantly better at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Eyüpspor — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bodrum FK, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Eyüpspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 32% versus Eyüpspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 32% | Eyüpspor 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.08 xG and Eyüpspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.663 / defence 0.897 | Eyüpspor attack 1.014 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.206. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Bodrum FK games / 19 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 32% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Eyüpspor 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bodrum FK 33% | Eyüpspor 70%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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