Bodrum FK 0-4 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu plays host to Bodrum FK versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 1 June 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodrum FK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bodrum FK at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
Beşiktaş (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bodrum FK, 1.50 for Beşiktaş — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bodrum FK, 1 for Beşiktaş and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodrum FK — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 49% of games.
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 31% versus Beşiktaş 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bodrum FK 26% | Beşiktaş 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 0.69 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.638 / defence 0.950 | Beşiktaş attack 0.912 / defence 0.675. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.290. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.638 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.675 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Bodrum FK games / 73 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 45%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Beşiktaş 2.22. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bodrum FK's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates are neutral: Bodrum FK 40% | Beşiktaş 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Bodrum FK 0.69 / Beşiktaş 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.638 / def 0.950 | Beşiktaş attack 0.912 / def 0.675 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Bodrum FK 0 - 4 Beşiktaş.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş part of?
Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 22% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Bodrum FK 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodrum FK's attack rating (0.64) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.91x) against Bodrum FK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
22%
4.45
32%
3.11
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
1.81
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
4.45
22%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 18.3 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.12 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Bodrum FK have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 9W 10D 16L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 16W 11D 8L from 35 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bodrum FK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bodrum FK have posted 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 9D 3L from 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.57 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 66%.
Defensively: Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 9W 10D 16L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 16W 11D 8L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.18 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
0
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Bodrum FK 0-4 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 35%, Beşiktaş 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Bodrum FK and 24% for Beşiktaş.
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bodrum FK have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 65% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 24% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Bodrum FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Bodrum FK 0-4 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 0.69 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.64 / defence 0.95 against Beşiktaş attack 0.91 / defence 0.68, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 45%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 26%, Beşiktaş 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.