🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Besiktas Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Besiktas Park this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.

Konyaspor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Beşiktaş, 1.70 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Beşiktaş have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Konyaspor managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Beşiktaş winning.

The historical record gives Beşiktaş a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 59% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Konyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.71 xG and Konyaspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.015 / defence 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 1.050 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 34 Beşiktaş games / 34 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 47% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 4.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights