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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Alanyaspor travel to Besiktas Park to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 January 2027, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Beşiktaş's home record at Besiktas Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor away from home this season: 0W 7D 3L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.40 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 3, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Beşiktaş trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Alanyaspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 59% and Alanyaspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Alanyaspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.54 xG and Alanyaspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.015 / defence 0.999 | Alanyaspor attack 0.930 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Beşiktaş games / 34 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 4.17. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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