Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Besiktas Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Besiktas Park this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 1.90 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Beşiktaş, 3 for Trabzonspor and 5 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Trabzonspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 60% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.67 xG and Trabzonspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.313 / defence 0.913 | Trabzonspor attack 1.088 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Beşiktaş games / 42 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Trabzonspor 3.70. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Beşiktaş 1.67 / Trabzonspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.313 / def 0.913 | Trabzonspor attack 1.088 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Trabzonspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Besiktas Park.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 49% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Record (10 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 5 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.31) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.13
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.84
1.16
Trabzonspor xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.16 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 22W 9D 11L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 25W 10D 7L from 42 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.79 PPG, Trabzonspor on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 12W 4D 5L from 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.88 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.05 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beşiktaş at 67%, Trabzonspor at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Beşiktaş and 62% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beşiktaş's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Beşiktaş's matches and 62% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.