Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Besiktas Park in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 2.10 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Trabzonspor and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Beşiktaş 3–3 Trabzonspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 65%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 60% and Trabzonspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Trabzonspor 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Trabzonspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 65% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.096 / defence 0.985 | Trabzonspor attack 1.293 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.293, which lifts their away xG to 1.42. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 68 games and Trabzonspor's last 68.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 35% | Draw 32% | Trabzonspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.85 | Draw 3.15 | Trabzonspor 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 35% | Draw 32% | Trabzonspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.46 / Trabzonspor 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.096 / def 0.985 | Trabzonspor attack 1.293 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Trabzonspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Besiktas Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 35% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.10) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 68 games and Trabzonspor's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
35%
2.85
32%
3.15
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.88
1.42
Trabzonspor xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.42 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 34W 19D 15L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 32W 21D 15L from 68 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.78 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 34 home games (20W 6D 8L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 13W 10D 11L from their last 34 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.72 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 62%.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 34W 19D 15L in their last 68 games (1.78 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 32W 21D 15L in their last 68 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.94 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 3-0 Beşiktaş.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Trabzonspor 2-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 68%, Trabzonspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Beşiktaş) and 53% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Beşiktaş's games and 62% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Beşiktaş's matches and 53% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 65% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Besiktas Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Trabzonspor attack 1.29 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 35% | Draw 32% | Trabzonspor 33%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.78 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.