Beşiktaş 2-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 4 as Beşiktaş welcome Sivasspor to Tüpraş Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş at Tüpraş Stadyumu this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beşiktaş at 1.60 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 4, Sivasspor 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Sivasspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Sivasspor trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 50% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 48% | Sivasspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.82 xG and Sivasspor 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.184 / defence 1.044 | Sivasspor attack 1.041 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.295. Data: 40 Beşiktaş games / 41 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sivasspor 3.57. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Beşiktaş 1.82 / Sivasspor 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.184 / def 1.044 | Sivasspor attack 1.041 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Sivasspor xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Beşiktaş and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
Record (6 meetings): Beşiktaş 4W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.18) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.90
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.23
1.41
Sivasspor xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
5%
21.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.41 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 18W 8D 14L from 40 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 13L across 40 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.55 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 11W 4D 5L from 20 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 8W 4D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Sivasspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.85 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
0
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Sivasspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Sivasspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Sivasspor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Beşiktaş) and 60% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Beşiktaş's games and 65% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 60% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Sivasspor 2-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.82 xG and Sivasspor 1.41 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.18 / defence 1.04 against Sivasspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 28%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 48%, Sivasspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sivasspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.55 PPG, Sivasspor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.