Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Besiktas Park to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Besiktas Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Samsunspor have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 1.90 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Samsunspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Samsunspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.73 xG and Samsunspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.275 / defence 0.799 | Samsunspor attack 0.930 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Beşiktaş's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Beşiktaş games / 44 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 75% | Draw 15% | Samsunspor 10%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Samsunspor 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 75% | Draw 15% | Samsunspor 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 57% | xG Beşiktaş 2.73 / Samsunspor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.275 / def 0.799 | Samsunspor attack 0.930 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Samsunspor xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Besiktas Park.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 75% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beşiktaş and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 3 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.27x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.93x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.82
10%
9.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.66
0.93
Samsunspor xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.82
15%
Draw
9.73
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
7%
15.26
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
1%
148.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.93 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 23W 10D 11L from 44 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 17L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Samsunspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 14W 4D 4L from 22 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Samsunspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.09 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 64%, Samsunspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Beşiktaş and 54% for Samsunspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Beşiktaş's games and 64% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Beşiktaş's matches and 54% of Samsunspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.