Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Besiktas Park to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's home record at Besiktas Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Samsunspor arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Samsunspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Samsunspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 57% | Samsunspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.83 xG and Samsunspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.361 / defence 0.961 | Samsunspor attack 1.104 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Beşiktaş games / 37 Samsunspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 23% | Samsunspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Samsunspor 3.70. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 23% | Samsunspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Beşiktaş 1.83 / Samsunspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.361 / def 0.961 | Samsunspor attack 1.104 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Samsunspor xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Besiktas Park.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 50% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Beşiktaş and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 3 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.36x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.10x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.38
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.13
1.29
Samsunspor xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
4%
23.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.29 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 19W 9D 9L from 37 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 10L across 37 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.49 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 10W 4D 4L from 18 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 7W 5D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 10L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Samsunspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.89 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Beşiktaş, 67% for Samsunspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Beşiktaş and 56% for Samsunspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beşiktaş's games and 67% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Beşiktaş's matches and 56% of Samsunspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.