Beşiktaş 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Tupras Stadium to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Tupras Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Samsunspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Samsunspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 65% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Samsunspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.49 xG and Samsunspor 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.264 / defence 1.174 | Samsunspor attack 1.211 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.296. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Samsunspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Beşiktaş games / 48 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Samsunspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 90% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tupras Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Beşiktaş 1.49 / Samsunspor 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.264 / def 1.174 | Samsunspor attack 1.211 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Samsunspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Tupras Stadium.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Tupras Stadium.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 30% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Beşiktaş and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Record (4 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 2 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.26x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.21x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
30%
3.38
26%
3.81
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.33
1.84
Samsunspor xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
5%
21.29
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.84 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 23W 13D 12L from 48 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 11L across 48 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.81 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 14W 2D 7L from 23 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 11W 7D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.52 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Samsunspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 23W 13D 12L in their last 48 games (1.71 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 25W 12D 11L in their last 48 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Samsunspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.91 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Samsunspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 74%, Samsunspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Beşiktaş and 56% for Samsunspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 39%; Samsunspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Beşiktaş's games and 48% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Beşiktaş's matches and 56% of Samsunspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Samsunspor finished level at 1-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.49 xG and Samsunspor 1.84 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.26 / defence 1.17 against Samsunspor attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 44%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.71 PPG, Samsunspor 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.