Beşiktaş 1-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Tupras Stadium to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş at Tupras Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rizespor (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Beşiktaş, 1.30 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Rizespor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Beşiktaş 3W, Rizespor 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 65% and Rizespor 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Rizespor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.73 xG and Rizespor 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.245 / defence 1.099 | Rizespor attack 1.067 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.324. Data: 52 Beşiktaş games / 52 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 39% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 32%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Rizespor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 100% | Rizespor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tupras Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 39% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG Beşiktaş 1.73 / Rizespor 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.245 / def 1.099 | Rizespor attack 1.067 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Rizespor xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Rizespor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Tupras Stadium.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Tupras Stadium.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 39% chance of winning, Rizespor a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Beşiktaş and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
Record (6 meetings): Beşiktaş 3W | Draws 2 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Rizespor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.07x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.44
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.28
1.55
Rizespor xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.55 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 24W 16D 12L from 52 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 23L across 52 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.29 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 14W 4D 7L from 25 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 7W 5D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.38 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 24W 16D 12L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 19W 10D 23L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Rizespor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.84 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Rizespor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Beşiktaş, 64% for Rizespor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Beşiktaş and 60% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Beşiktaş's games and 64% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Beşiktaş's matches and 60% of Rizespor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Rizespor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Rizespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Rizespor 1-0 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.73 xG and Rizespor 1.55 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.25 / defence 1.10 against Rizespor attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 39% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 32%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.69 PPG, Rizespor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.