Beşiktaş 1-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Pendikspor meet at Beşiktaş Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş at Beşiktaş Park this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 5.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 5.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pendikspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.60 in Beşiktaş's favour (2.60 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pendikspor in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.07 xG and Pendikspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.260 / defence 0.923 | Pendikspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.323. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Beşiktaş games / 1 Pendikspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Pendikspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Beşiktaş Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Beşiktaş 2.07 / Pendikspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.260 / def 0.923 | Pendikspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Pendikspor xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Beşiktaş Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Beşiktaş Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 59% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beşiktaş and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Pendikspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Pendikspor (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 5.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.26) and Pendikspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.85x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (37/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.02
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.11
1.04
Pendikspor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
2%
49.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.04 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pendikspor sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pendikspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Pendikspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.00 scored and 5.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pendikspor in 100%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Pendikspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Beşiktaş or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
1
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 0, Pendikspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Pendikspor 4-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Pendikspor?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Pendikspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 100% of Pendikspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 100% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Pendikspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Pendikspor finished level at 1-1 at Beşiktaş Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 2.07 xG and Pendikspor 1.04 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.26 / defence 0.92 against Pendikspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 16%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 0%, Pendikspor 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pendikspor conceded 1 against a 5.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.