Beşiktaş 1-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Beşiktaş have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Beşiktaş, 0 for Fenerbahçe and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended Beşiktaş 4–2 Fenerbahçe — a Beşiktaş win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 58% versus Fenerbahçe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beşiktaş 58% | Fenerbahçe 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 0.84 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.021 / defence 0.690 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.147 / defence 0.517. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.245. Fenerbahçe bring a tight defence (rating 0.517, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Beşiktaş's projected output down. Beşiktaş have a tight defence (rating 0.690), which is pulling Fenerbahçe's projected output down. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 50 games and Fenerbahçe's last 50.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 29% | Draw 35% | Fenerbahçe 36%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.50 | Draw 2.85 | Fenerbahçe 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 40% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 15 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 29% | Draw 35% | Fenerbahçe 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Beşiktaş 0.84 / Fenerbahçe 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.021 / def 0.690 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.147 / def 0.517 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Fenerbahçe xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Beşiktaş 1 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 15) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 29% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.02) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.52), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.15x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 50 games and Fenerbahçe's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
29%
3.50
35%
2.85
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
1.83
0.99
Fenerbahçe xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.99 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 31W 11D 8L from 50 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 37W 6D 7L across 50 games — 2.34 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.08 PPG for Beşiktaş against 2.34 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 18W 5D 1L from their last 24 home games — 2.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 17W 4D 3L across their last 24 away games, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.48 scored and 1.04 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 31W 11D 8L in their last 50 games (2.08 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 37W 6D 7L in their last 50 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.46 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
4
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 4, Fenerbahçe have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Fenerbahçe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Beşiktaş) and 58% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Beşiktaş's matches and 58% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 65% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Beşiktaş 1-3 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 0.84 xG and Fenerbahçe 0.99 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.02 / defence 0.69 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.15 / defence 0.52, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 29% | Draw 35% | Fenerbahçe 36%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 58%, Fenerbahçe 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 2.08 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.