Beşiktaş 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş at Tüpraş Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Beşiktaş's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Beşiktaş, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Fatih Karagümrük — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
The historical record gives Beşiktaş a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 60% and Fatih Karagümrük 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 62% | Fatih Karagümrük 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.27 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.940 / defence 1.132 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.794 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.286. Data: 55 Beşiktaş games / 55 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Beşiktaş 1.27 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.940 / def 1.132 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.794 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Beşiktaş 3 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 37% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 4W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.94) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.79x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.21
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.16 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş come into this having played 55 games, going 33W 11D 11L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.29 PPG from 55 outings (18W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Beşiktaş's home form reads 18W 5D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.76 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fatih Karagümrük in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 33W 11D 11L in their last 55 games (2.00 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.19 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 4-1 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
0
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Beşiktaş and 59% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Beşiktaş's games and 63% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Beşiktaş's matches and 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Beşiktaş and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.27 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 62%, Fatih Karagümrük 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.