Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Eyüpspor travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.40 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Beşiktaş hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Eyüpspor, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Beşiktaş and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Eyüpspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 59% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Eyüpspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.64 xG and Eyüpspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.032 / defence 0.998 | Eyüpspor attack 1.003 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.157. Data: 34 Beşiktaş games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Eyüpspor 4.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Beşiktaş 1.64 / Eyüpspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.032 / def 0.998 | Eyüpspor attack 1.003 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Eyüpspor xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Beşiktaş 3W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.48
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.80
1.16
Eyüpspor xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
5%
20.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.16 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 17W 9D 8L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. Beşiktaş haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Eyüpspor's form line: 8W 9D 17L from 34 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. Eyüpspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eyüpspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 5D 9L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.97 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Pre-Season
Eyüpspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 17W 9D 8L in their last 34 games (1.76 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 8W 9D 17L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Eyüpspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.82 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 71%, Eyüpspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Beşiktaş) and 47% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Beşiktaş's games and 47% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Beşiktaş's matches and 47% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Eyüpspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.64 xG and Eyüpspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Eyüpspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 25%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 59%, Eyüpspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.