🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Beşiktaş and Erzurumspor FK meet at Besiktas Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Besiktas Park, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.86 xG and Erzurumspor FK 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.015 / defence 0.999 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Beşiktaş games / 0 Erzurumspor FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 56% | Draw 26% | Erzurumspor FK 18%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Erzurumspor FK 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights