Beşiktaş 0-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Başakşehir travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Başakşehir have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beşiktaş at 1.80 PPG versus Başakşehir's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Beşiktaş's games and 60% of Başakşehir's (from Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Beşiktaş have won 2, Başakşehir 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Beşiktaş 0–0 Başakşehir — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 56% versus Başakşehir 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 46% | Başakşehir 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Başakşehir have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.80 xG and Başakşehir 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.027 / defence 0.930 | Başakşehir attack 1.131 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.189. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 66 games and Başakşehir's last 66.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 26%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.00 | Draw 4.18 | Başakşehir 3.83. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.80 / Başakşehir 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.027 / def 0.930 | Başakşehir attack 1.131 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Başakşehir xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Beşiktaş 0 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir part of?
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 50% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Beşiktaş and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.03x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 66 games and Başakşehir's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.18
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.06
1.25
Başakşehir xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
4%
23.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.25 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 29W 17D 20L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 30W 13D 23L from 66 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.58 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 32 home games (19W 5D 8L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 12W 6D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.55 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 29W 17D 20L in their last 66 games (1.58 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 30W 13D 23L in their last 66 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Başakşehir away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.94 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Beşiktaş 2-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 53%, Başakşehir 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beşiktaş) and 47% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Başakşehir in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 47% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 47% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 69% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Beşiktaş 0-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.80 xG and Başakşehir 1.25 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Başakşehir attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 26%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 46%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.58 PPG, Başakşehir 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.