Beşiktaş 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Başakşehir travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 8W 2D 0L at Tüpraş Stadyumu — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Beşiktaş have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 1, Başakşehir 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Başakşehir 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 60% | Başakşehir 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.37 xG and Başakşehir 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.113 / defence 0.699 | Başakşehir attack 0.648 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.250. Beşiktaş's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Beşiktaş games / 47 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 14%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.82 | Draw 3.23 | Başakşehir 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (55%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Başakşehir's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Başakşehir 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 34% | xG Beşiktaş 1.37 / Başakşehir 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.113 / def 0.699 | Başakşehir attack 0.648 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Başakşehir xG
34%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Beşiktaş 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir part of?
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 55% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 14% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Beşiktaş and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir?
Record (4 meetings): Beşiktaş 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.11x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 2-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
55%
1.81
31%
3.23
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
1.94
0.57
Başakşehir xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
4%
28.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.57 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 29W 10D 8L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 20W 11D 16L from 47 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.43 PPG from 23 outings (17W 5D 1L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 7W 7D 9L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.32 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 29W 10D 8L in their last 47 games (2.06 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Başakşehir away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.43 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
3
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Başakşehir have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 52%, Başakşehir 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Beşiktaş) and 35% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Başakşehir in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 39% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 35% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.37 xG and Başakşehir 0.57 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.11 / defence 0.70 against Başakşehir attack 0.65 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 55% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 14%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 60%, Başakşehir 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Başakşehir's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.