Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor meet at Tüpraş Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L at Tüpraş Stadyumu — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.20 for Antalyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 2 for Antalyaspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 49% versus Antalyaspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 46% | Antalyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.64 xG and Antalyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.037 / defence 0.981 | Antalyaspor attack 0.926 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.268. Data: 39 Beşiktaş games / 39 Antalyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 47% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Antalyaspor 4.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 40% | Antalyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 47% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Beşiktaş 1.64 / Antalyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.037 / def 0.981 | Antalyaspor attack 0.926 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Antalyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Beşiktaş 4 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 47% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 1.04x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.93x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.51
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.79
1.15
Antalyaspor xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
20.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.15 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş come into this having played 39 games, going 17W 8D 14L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (12W 14D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.28 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Beşiktaş's home form reads 10W 4D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 12W 14D 13L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Antalyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.79 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 47%, Antalyaspor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Beşiktaş) and 53% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Beşiktaş's games and 63% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 53% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Antalyaspor 4-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.64 xG and Antalyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Antalyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 47% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 25%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 46%, Antalyaspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.51 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.