Beşiktaş 1-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor meet at Tüpraş Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 1D 4L at Tüpraş Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antalyaspor's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.00 for Antalyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Antalyaspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–3 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 51% versus Antalyaspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 55% | Antalyaspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.34 xG and Antalyaspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.973 / defence 0.824 | Antalyaspor attack 0.912 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.139. Data: 65 Beşiktaş games / 65 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Antalyaspor 4.55. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 30% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Beşiktaş 1.34 / Antalyaspor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.973 / def 0.824 | Antalyaspor attack 0.912 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Antalyaspor xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 0.97x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.91x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.12
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.20
0.86
Antalyaspor xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.86 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beşiktaş come into this having played 65 games, going 37W 13D 15L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 65 outings (20W 19D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Beşiktaş's home form reads 21W 6D 5L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.84 points per game from 32 outings (6W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 37W 13D 15L in their last 65 games (1.91 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 20W 19D 26L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Antalyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.16 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 47%, Antalyaspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beşiktaş) and 34% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 47% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 34% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.34 xG and Antalyaspor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Antalyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 22%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 55%, Antalyaspor 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.