Beşiktaş vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amed make the trip to Besiktas Park to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Besiktas Park this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Amed have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Amed have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Beşiktaş against 2.00 for Amed. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Beşiktaş 0W, Amed 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Amed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Amed — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Amed 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beşiktaş 64% | Amed 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.59 xG and Amed 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.278 / defence 0.789 | Amed attack 1.191 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.279. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Beşiktaş's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Beşiktaş games / 11 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 67% | Draw 17% | Amed 16%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.49 | Draw 5.88 | Amed 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 67% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Amed 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 67% | Draw 17% | Amed 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 65% | xG Beşiktaş 2.59 / Amed 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.278 / def 0.789 | Amed attack 1.191 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Amed xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Amed kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Besiktas Park.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Amed part of?
Beşiktaş vs Amed is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 67% chance of winning, Amed a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Beşiktaş and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Amed?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 0 | Amed 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Amed in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Amed (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.28) and Amed's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Amed's attack (1.19x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 44/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
67%
1.49
17%
5.86
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.79
1.20
Amed xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.86
17%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
8%
13.28
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
1%
84.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.20 for Amed, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 6W 2D 3L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed's form line: 7W 2D 2L from 11 games, 2.09 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Beşiktaş against 2.09 for Amed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Amed have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.55 scored and 1.36 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Amed in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Amed in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Amed have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Amed away?
Beşiktaş's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 3.00 PPG; Amed away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Beşiktaş
0
Draws
1
Amed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Amed?
From 1 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 0, Amed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Amed last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Amed 3-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Amed?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 40%, Amed 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Beşiktaş and 80% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Amed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Beşiktaş's games and 80% of Amed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beşiktaş's matches and 80% of Amed's.
Do Beşiktaş and Amed tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.