Beşiktaş 2-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Tupras Stadium to take on Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alanyaspor away from home: 1W 7D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Beşiktaş are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 2, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Beşiktaş 0–2 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 64% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Alanyaspor 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Alanyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Alanyaspor surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Beşiktaş recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.087 / defence 0.914 | Alanyaspor attack 0.848 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.299. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 56 games and Alanyaspor's last 56.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.44 | Draw 2.85 | Alanyaspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 80% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 21 | Venue: Tupras Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.35 / Alanyaspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.087 / def 0.914 | Alanyaspor attack 0.848 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Tupras Stadium.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tupras Stadium.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 21) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 41% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 56 games and Alanyaspor's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
41%
2.44
35%
2.85
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.36
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.01 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 27W 17D 12L from 56 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 21L across 56 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 17W 4D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 11D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 games (1.75 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.96 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won Beşiktaş 4-1 Alanyaspor.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beşiktaş at 71%, Alanyaspor at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Beşiktaş) and 43% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Beşiktaş's games and 61% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 43% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 71% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Alanyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 24%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Alanyaspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.