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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Alanyaspor travel to Tupras Stadium to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Beşiktaş's home record at Tupras Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Beşiktaş are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Alanyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Beşiktaş trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 64% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 50% | Alanyaspor 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.35 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.087 / defence 0.914 | Alanyaspor attack 0.848 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.299. Data: 56 Beşiktaş games / 56 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 41% | Draw 35% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Alanyaspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 80% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

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