Beşiktaş 4-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 35). Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Adana Demirspor away from home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 1.70 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2024, ended Beşiktaş 1–2 Adana Demirspor — a Adana Demirspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 56% versus Adana Demirspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 44% | Adana Demirspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.84 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.089 / defence 0.951 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.900 / defence 1.638. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.219. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.638 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beşiktaş's projected output up. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 70 games and Adana Demirspor's last 70.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 74% | Draw 14% | Adana Demirspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.34 | Draw 6.91 | Adana Demirspor 9.03. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (74%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.84 / 1.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 60% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 35 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 74% | Draw 14% | Adana Demirspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Beşiktaş 2.84 / Adana Demirspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.089 / def 0.951 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.900 / def 1.638 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Adana Demirspor xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş 4 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 35) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 74% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.84. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.90x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 70 games and Adana Demirspor's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.3%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
74%
1.34
14%
6.91
11%
9.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.88
1.04
Adana Demirspor xG
1.34
74%
Home win
6.91
14%
Draw
9.03
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
6%
17.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
1%
154.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.04 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 70 games, going 31W 18D 21L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 0.77 PPG from 70 outings (12W 18D 40L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Beşiktaş's home form reads 20W 6D 9L across their last 35 home games, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 0.51 points per game from their last 35 away games (2W 12D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.17 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 31W 18D 21L in their last 70 games (1.59 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 18D 40L in their last 70 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.89 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.51 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won Adana Demirspor 1-4 Beşiktaş on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2025: Beşiktaş 4-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Adana Demirspor 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Beşiktaş) and 60% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Beşiktaş's games and 66% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 60% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 83% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Adana Demirspor 4-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 2.84 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.64, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 74% | Draw 14% | Adana Demirspor 11%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Adana Demirspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.