Beşiktaş 0-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 22). Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Adana Demirspor away from home: 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Beşiktaş 2–4 Adana Demirspor — a Adana Demirspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 58% and Adana Demirspor 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 63% | Adana Demirspor 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Adana Demirspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.54 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.063 / defence 1.062 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.825 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.240. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 57 games and Adana Demirspor's last 57.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.20 | Draw 3.33 | Adana Demirspor 4.08. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.54 / Adana Demirspor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.063 / def 1.062 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.825 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş 0 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 45% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.82x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 57 games and Adana Demirspor's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.33
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.63
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.09 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 57 games, going 34W 11D 12L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.74 PPG from 57 outings (27W 18D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.74 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Beşiktaş's home form reads 19W 5D 4L across their last 28 home games, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 11D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.93 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 63%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 34W 11D 12L in their last 57 games (1.98 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 18D 12L in their last 57 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.21 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won Adana Demirspor 1-4 Beşiktaş on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2025: Beşiktaş 4-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Adana Demirspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Beşiktaş) and 54% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Beşiktaş's games and 71% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Beşiktaş's matches and 54% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 71% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beşiktaş's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, as Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.54 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Adana Demirspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 25%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 63%, Adana Demirspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.98 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.