🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Başakşehir (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Sivasspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sivasspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 3 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Başakşehir (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sivasspor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sivasspor have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Başakşehir. A 0.80 PPG lead over Sivasspor (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Başakşehir, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Sivasspor — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Başakşehir winning.

The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Başakşehir — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Sivasspor — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 46% versus Sivasspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 44% | Sivasspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.29 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.137 / defence 0.852 | Sivasspor attack 0.829 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.182. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Başakşehir games / 62 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Sivasspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 50% | Sivasspor 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights