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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Samsunspor encounter.

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Match Analysis

Başakşehir host Samsunspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Samsunspor away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Başakşehir at 1.80 PPG versus Samsunspor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Başakşehir register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Samsunspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 1 for Samsunspor and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Başakşehir winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Başakşehir trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Samsunspor trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Samsunspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 59% | Samsunspor 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.296 / defence 0.900 | Samsunspor attack 1.195 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 Başakşehir games / 68 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 58% | Draw 25% | Samsunspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Samsunspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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