Başakşehir 4-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Samsunspor at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Başakşehir at 1.40 PPG versus Samsunspor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 1 for Samsunspor and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Samsunspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Samsunspor trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 48% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 45% | Samsunspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.36 xG and Samsunspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.117 / defence 0.862 | Samsunspor attack 0.894 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.234. Samsunspor's defence strength of 0.718 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Başakşehir games / 58 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 44% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Samsunspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 70% | Samsunspor 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 44% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Başakşehir 1.36 / Samsunspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.117 / def 0.862 | Samsunspor attack 0.894 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Samsunspor xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Samsunspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Başakşehir 4 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 44% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Başakşehir and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
44%
2.28
32%
3.09
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.31
0.95
Samsunspor xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
16.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.95 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 12D 20L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.43 PPG from 58 outings (23W 14D 21L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.55 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 15W 7D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.97 points per game from 29 outings (7W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 26W 12D 20L in their last 58 games (1.55 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 23W 14D 21L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Samsunspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.79 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Başakşehir won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Samsunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Başakşehir 3-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 52%, Samsunspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Başakşehir) and 45% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Samsunspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 48% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Başakşehir's recent games and 45% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 4-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.36 xG and Samsunspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Samsunspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.12 / defence 0.86 against Samsunspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.72, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 44% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 24%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 45%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.55 PPG, Samsunspor 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.