Başakşehir 1-4 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 35 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.80 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fenerbahçe, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Başakşehir.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
It is worth noting that Fenerbahçe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 47% versus Fenerbahçe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 47% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.23 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.967 / defence 0.908 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.693 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.198. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.693 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Başakşehir games / 70 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 25% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 52%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Fenerbahçe 1.92. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 30% | Fenerbahçe 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 25% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Başakşehir 1.23 / Fenerbahçe 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.967 / def 0.908 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.693 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Fenerbahçe xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Başakşehir 1 - 4 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 25% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Record (7 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 5W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
25%
3.94
23%
4.38
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.07
1.84
Fenerbahçe xG
3.94
25%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
4%
24.83
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.84 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 33W 13D 24L from 70 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 54W 12D 4L across 70 games — 2.49 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 19W 7D 9L from 35 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 27W 7D 1L across 35 trips, a 2.51 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.56 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 33W 13D 24L in their last 70 games (1.60 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 54W 12D 4L in their last 70 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.83 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.51 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 46%, Fenerbahçe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 51% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Başakşehir's recent games and 51% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 1-4 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.23 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.84 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.69 / defence 0.77, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 25% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 52%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 47%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.