Başakşehir vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Amed at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have recorded 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.70 PPG, Amed 1.75 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Amed in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 75% and Amed 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 50% | Amed 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.23 xG and Amed 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.157 / defence 0.960 | Amed attack 0.891 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Başakşehir games / 4 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 64% | Draw 19% | Amed 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Amed 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 40% | Amed 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 64% | Draw 19% | Amed 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG Başakşehir 2.23 / Amed 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.157 / def 0.960 | Amed attack 0.891 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Amed xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Amed kick off?
Başakşehir vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Amed part of?
Başakşehir vs Amed is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 64% chance of winning, Amed a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Başakşehir and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Amed in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Amed (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.16) and Amed's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.19
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.28
1.05
Amed xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
11%
9.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
55.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.05 for Amed, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Amed sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Amed in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 75%, Amed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Başakşehir and 75% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Amed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Başakşehir's games and 50% of Amed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Başakşehir's matches and 75% of Amed's.
Do Başakşehir and Amed tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amed in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.