Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (70%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Başakşehir face Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Monday 3 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Başakşehir's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sivasspor have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Başakşehir. A 0.80 PPG lead over Sivasspor (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Başakşehir, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Sivasspor — Sivasspor have 1 win, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Başakşehir 2–1 Sivasspor — a Başakşehir win.
The head-to-head data gives Başakşehir an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 46% versus Sivasspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 44% | Sivasspor 51%). Note also that Sivasspor surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Başakşehir recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.29 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.137 / defence 0.852 | Sivasspor attack 0.829 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.182. Sivasspor's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Başakşehir's projected output up. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 61 games and Sivasspor's last 62.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.44 | Draw 5.30 | Sivasspor 8.67. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (70%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 50% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Başakşehir 2.29 / Sivasspor 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.137 / def 0.852 | Sivasspor attack 0.829 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sivasspor xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 3 March 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Sivasspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 70% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Başakşehir and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.83x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 61 games and Sivasspor's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
70%
1.44
19%
5.30
12%
8.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.13
0.83
Sivasspor xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.30
19%
Draw
8.67
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
10%
9.88
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
85.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.83 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 13D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.26 PPG from 61 outings (20W 17D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.26 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 27W 13D 21L in their last 61 games (1.54 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Sivasspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.83 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 3 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Başakşehir have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 6, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2025: Başakşehir 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Sivasspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 50%, Sivasspor 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Başakşehir) and 60% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sivasspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Sivasspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 57% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Başakşehir's recent games and 60% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 77% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.29 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Sivasspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Sivasspor 12%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 44%, Sivasspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sivasspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.54 PPG, Sivasspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.