Başakşehir 3-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Samsunspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Başakşehir's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Samsunspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Samsunspor away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Başakşehir at 1.80 PPG versus Samsunspor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Başakşehir's games and 70% of Samsunspor's (from Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Başakşehir have won 3, Samsunspor 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Başakşehir 2–0 Samsunspor — a Başakşehir win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Samsunspor trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Samsunspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 59% | Samsunspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.296 / defence 0.900 | Samsunspor attack 1.195 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack rating of 1.296 — their 2.22 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 68 games and Samsunspor's last 68.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 58% | Draw 25% | Samsunspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.72 | Draw 4.01 | Samsunspor 5.89. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.22 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 60% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 58% | Draw 25% | Samsunspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Başakşehir 2.22 / Samsunspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.296 / def 0.900 | Samsunspor attack 1.195 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Samsunspor xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Samsunspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 58% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Başakşehir and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 68 games and Samsunspor's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.01
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.41
1.19
Samsunspor xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
11%
9.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
2%
54.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.19 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 68 games, going 30W 15D 23L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.65 PPG from 68 outings (31W 19D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.54 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 16W 10D 8L across their last 34 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 34 away games (14W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.44 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
Başakşehir (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 30W 15D 23L in their last 68 games (1.54 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 31W 19D 18L in their last 68 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Samsunspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.71 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Başakşehir won Başakşehir 4-0 Samsunspor.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 5, Samsunspor have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Başakşehir 5-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 59%, Samsunspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Başakşehir) and 56% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Samsunspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Başakşehir's games and 56% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Başakşehir and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Başakşehir's matches and 56% of Samsunspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 74% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 3-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.19 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against Samsunspor attack 1.20 / defence 1.17, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 58% | Draw 25% | Samsunspor 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 59%, Samsunspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.54 PPG, Samsunspor 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.