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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Başakşehir host Samsunspor at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Samsunspor away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Başakşehir at 1.40 PPG versus Samsunspor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 1 for Samsunspor and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Samsunspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Başakşehir trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Samsunspor trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 48% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 45% | Samsunspor 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.36 xG and Samsunspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.117 / defence 0.862 | Samsunspor attack 0.894 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.234. Samsunspor's defence strength of 0.718 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Başakşehir games / 58 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 44% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Samsunspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 70% | Samsunspor 30%.

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