Başakşehir 1-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Samsunspor at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Başakşehir at 1.70 PPG versus Samsunspor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 0 for Samsunspor and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Samsunspor trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 37% versus Samsunspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Başakşehir 37% | Samsunspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.83 xG and Samsunspor 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.096 / defence 1.029 | Samsunspor attack 0.794 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.173. Data: 63 Başakşehir games / 27 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 55% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Başakşehir 1.83 / Samsunspor 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.096 / def 1.029 | Samsunspor attack 0.794 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Samsunspor xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Samsunspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 55% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Başakşehir and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
55%
1.82
28%
3.54
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.79
0.96
Samsunspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
37.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.96 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 6D 11L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (9W 6D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.33 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.54 points per game from 13 outings (1W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Samsunspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.54 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Başakşehir won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Samsunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Başakşehir 3-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 46%, Samsunspor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 38% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 31% of games; Samsunspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Başakşehir's games and 69% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Başakşehir's recent games and 38% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Samsunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.83 xG and Samsunspor 0.96 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Samsunspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 55% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 37%, Samsunspor 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.33 PPG, Samsunspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.