Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Başakşehir welcome Rizespor to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Başakşehir: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Rizespor, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Rizespor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 56% | Rizespor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.92 xG and Rizespor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.268 / defence 1.006 | Rizespor attack 0.990 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.294. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Başakşehir games / 55 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 49% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 23%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Rizespor 4.35. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 80% | Rizespor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 49% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Başakşehir 1.92 / Rizespor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.268 / def 1.006 | Rizespor attack 0.990 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Rizespor xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Rizespor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Rizespor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Başakşehir 2 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Rizespor part of?
Başakşehir vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 49% chance of winning, Rizespor a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Başakşehir and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
Record (7 meetings): Başakşehir 4W | Draws 2 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Rizespor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.55
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.21
1.29
Rizespor xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
3%
30.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.29 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 55 games, going 24W 11D 20L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.24 PPG from 55 outings (19W 11D 25L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.51 PPG, Rizespor on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 12W 8D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.96 points per game from 27 outings (7W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.35 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Rizespor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.63 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rizespor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Başakşehir
3
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 4, Rizespor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Rizespor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 63%, Rizespor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Başakşehir) and 59% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Başakşehir's games and 63% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Başakşehir's matches and 59% of Rizespor's.
Do Başakşehir and Rizespor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir and Rizespor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Rizespor finished level at 2-2 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.92 xG and Rizespor 1.29 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.27 / defence 1.01 against Rizespor attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 49% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 23%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 56%, Rizespor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.51 PPG, Rizespor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.