Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Konyaspor travel to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium to take on Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Başakşehir at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Başakşehir have won 4, Konyaspor 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Başakşehir 1–2 Konyaspor — a Konyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 59% and Konyaspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 59% | Konyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.03 xG and Konyaspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.210 / defence 1.139 | Konyaspor attack 0.864 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.264. Konyaspor's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Başakşehir's projected output up. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 59 games and Konyaspor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 53% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.90 | Draw 3.69 | Konyaspor 4.95. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 80% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 53% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Başakşehir 2.03 / Konyaspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.210 / def 1.139 | Konyaspor attack 0.864 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Konyaspor xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 53% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Başakşehir and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 59 games and Konyaspor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.69
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.27
1.24
Konyaspor xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
3%
37.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.24 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 26W 12D 21L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 18W 15D 26L from 59 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.53 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 9D 8L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 6W 5D 18L from their last 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 64%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 26W 12D 21L in their last 59 games (1.53 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 18W 15D 26L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Konyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.55 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 5, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Başakşehir at 66%, Konyaspor at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Başakşehir) and 55% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Başakşehir's games and 69% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Başakşehir's matches and 55% of Konyaspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 83% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.03 xG and Konyaspor 1.24 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.21 / defence 1.14 against Konyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 53% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 20%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 59%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.53 PPG, Konyaspor 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.