Başakşehir 0-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Konyaspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.70 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Başakşehir, 1 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 37% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Konyaspor 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.966 / defence 0.965 | Konyaspor attack 1.071 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.361. Data: 38 Başakşehir games / 39 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 30% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Konyaspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 40% | Konyaspor 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 30% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Başakşehir 1.24 / Konyaspor 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.966 / def 0.965 | Konyaspor attack 1.071 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Konyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 30% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Başakşehir and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
30%
3.39
33%
2.99
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.65
1.41
Konyaspor xG
3.39
30%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.41 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 18W 8D 12L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor's form line: 13W 16D 9L from 38 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.63 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.94 PPG from 18 outings (11W 2D 5L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 7W 7D 4L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.39 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 13W 16D 9L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Konyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.94 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
1
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Konyaspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 28%, Konyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Başakşehir) and 67% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 56% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Başakşehir's recent games and 67% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Konyaspor 1.41 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Konyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 30% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 37%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Konyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.63 PPG, Konyaspor 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.