Başakşehir 4-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 2D 2L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Başakşehir. A 0.50 PPG lead over Kasımpaşa (1.90 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Başakşehir are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2024, ended 3–0 with Başakşehir winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Başakşehir and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 40% versus Kasımpaşa 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Kasımpaşa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.54 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.963 / defence 0.815 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.097 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.239. Data: 70 Başakşehir games / 70 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 46% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 26%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 3.85. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 40% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 46% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Başakşehir 1.54 / Kasımpaşa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.963 / def 0.815 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.097 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kasımpaşa xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir 4 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 46% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 5W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 0.96x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.10x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.51
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.65
1.11
Kasımpaşa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.11 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 33W 15D 22L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 26W 14D 30L from 70 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.31 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.94 PPG from 35 outings (21W 5D 9L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 12W 7D 16L from 35 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.44 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 33W 15D 22L in their last 70 games (1.63 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 26W 14D 30L in their last 70 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.94 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 9, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 34%, Kasımpaşa 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Başakşehir) and 60% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 51% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Başakşehir's recent games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 4-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.54 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.11 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 0.81 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 46% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 26%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Kasımpaşa 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.63 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.