Başakşehir 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Başakşehir at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Hatayspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Başakşehir have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Başakşehir are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Başakşehir hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Hatayspor, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Başakşehir winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Başakşehir and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hatayspor in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 47% versus Hatayspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 41% | Hatayspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.07 xG and Hatayspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.220 / defence 0.911 | Hatayspor attack 0.884 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.249. Data: 51 Başakşehir games / 51 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 61% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Hatayspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 70% | Hatayspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 61% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Başakşehir 2.07 / Hatayspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.220 / def 0.911 | Hatayspor attack 0.884 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Hatayspor xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Başakşehir 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 61% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Başakşehir and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Record (6 meetings): Başakşehir 5W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.22x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.41
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.08
1.01
Hatayspor xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
2%
47.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.01 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 11D 17L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.96 PPG from 51 outings (10W 19D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 13W 6D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.60 points per game from 25 outings (2W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 23W 11D 17L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 19D 22L in their last 51 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Hatayspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.80 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 7, Hatayspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Hatayspor 2-4 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Hatayspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 52%, Hatayspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Başakşehir) and 40% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Hatayspor in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 48% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Başakşehir's recent games and 40% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 3-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.07 xG and Hatayspor 1.01 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Hatayspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 61% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 41%, Hatayspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.