Başakşehir 3-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Başakşehir welcome Gençlerbirliği S.K. to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Başakşehir's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Başakşehir are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Başakşehir, 1 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Başakşehir 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K. — a Gençlerbirliği S.K. win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gençlerbirliği S.K. in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 57% versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 57% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.58 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.121 / defence 1.012 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.611 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.161. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rating of 0.611 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 64 games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 28.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 30% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 14%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.80 | Draw 3.36 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 6.90. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (56%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 70% (last 10 home games) | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 30% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Başakşehir 1.58 / Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.121 / def 1.012 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.611 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kick off?
Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Başakşehir 3 - 0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Where is Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. part of?
Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 56% chance of winning, Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 64 games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
56%
1.80
30%
3.36
14%
6.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.30
0.72
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
6.90
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
3%
33.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.72 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir come into this having played 28 games, going 12W 8D 8L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Gençlerbirliği S.K. sit at 0.89 PPG from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Gençlerbirliği S.K. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Başakşehir's home form reads 5W 6D 3L across their last 14 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have taken 0.43 points per game from their last 14 away games (1W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Current Season
Başakşehir (Home) vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Current Season
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Current Season
❓ Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K. in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 12W 8D 8L in their last 28 games (1.57 PPG), while Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Gençlerbirliği S.K. away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.50 PPG; Gençlerbirliği S.K. away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Gençlerbirliği S.K. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Başakşehir have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Sep 2026, when Başakşehir won Başakşehir 4-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Başakşehir's record when hosting Gençlerbirliği S.K. specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
0
Draws
1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 2, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Başakşehir 4-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 71%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Başakşehir) and 43% (Gençlerbirliği S.K.).
On the defensive side: Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Gençlerbirliği S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Başakşehir's games and 50% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Başakşehir's recent games and 43% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Gençlerbirliği S.K. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 57% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gençlerbirliği S.K..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.58 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.72 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.12 / defence 1.01 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.61 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 56% | Draw 30% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 14%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 57%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.