Başakşehir 2-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Göztepe meet at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.
Göztepe (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Başakşehir's favour (2.30 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Göztepe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Göztepe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Göztepe have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 58% versus Göztepe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 58% | Göztepe 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.56 xG and Göztepe 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.233 / defence 1.062 | Göztepe attack 0.805 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.229. Data: 60 Başakşehir games / 60 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 46% | Draw 32% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Göztepe 4.55. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Göztepe lead the H2H ledger, but Başakşehir carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 80% | Göztepe 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 46% | Draw 32% | Göztepe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Başakşehir 1.56 / Göztepe 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.233 / def 1.062 | Göztepe attack 0.805 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Göztepe xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Göztepe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Göztepe kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Başakşehir 2 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Göztepe part of?
Başakşehir vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 46% chance of winning, Göztepe a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Başakşehir and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 4W.
What form are Başakşehir and Göztepe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.23) and Göztepe's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (0.81x) against Başakşehir's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.08
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.62
1.05
Göztepe xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.05 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 27W 12D 21L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe's form line: 24W 20D 16L from 60 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.53 for Göztepe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L).
On the road, Göztepe have gone 8W 9D 13L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.43 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 24W 20D 16L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Göztepe away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.60 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Göztepe in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-1 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
0
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Göztepe have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 63%, Göztepe 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Başakşehir) and 47% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Göztepe in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Başakşehir's games and 57% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Başakşehir's recent games and 47% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Göztepe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Göztepe 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Göztepe 2-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.56 xG and Göztepe 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.23 / defence 1.06 against Göztepe attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 46% | Draw 32% | Göztepe 22%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 58%, Göztepe 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.55 PPG, Göztepe 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.