Başakşehir 0-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 24 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Başakşehir, 3 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 0–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 39% versus Fenerbahçe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Fenerbahçe 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.155 / defence 0.992 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.558 / defence 0.714. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.229. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.714 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.558 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Başakşehir games / 57 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 23% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 51%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Fenerbahçe 1.96. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 50% | Fenerbahçe 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 23% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Başakşehir 1.24 / Fenerbahçe 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.155 / def 0.992 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.558 / def 0.714 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 24 January 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 23% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 3W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
23%
4.39
27%
3.75
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.14
1.90
Fenerbahçe xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
3%
29.38
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.90 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 25W 14D 18L from 57 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 42W 8D 7L across 57 games — 2.35 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 17W 4D 7L from 28 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 21W 4D 3L across 28 trips, a 2.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.54 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 42W 8D 7L in their last 57 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.96 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 36%, Fenerbahçe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Başakşehir) and 61% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Başakşehir's recent games and 61% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.90 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.56 / defence 0.71, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 23% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 51%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Fenerbahçe 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.