🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Başakşehir (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Eyüpspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Başakşehir and Eyüpspor meet at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 April 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Başakşehir have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 7W 2D 1L at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.

Eyüpspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Başakşehir's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Başakşehir, 0 for Eyüpspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Başakşehir winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Başakşehir — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 62% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Eyüpspor 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.164 / defence 0.890 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 34 Başakşehir games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 57% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights