Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Samsunspor have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Samsunspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.00 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Antalyaspor's games and 70% of Samsunspor's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Antalyaspor, 2 for Samsunspor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Antalyaspor 2–1 Samsunspor — a Antalyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Samsunspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Samsunspor 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Antalyaspor surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.957 / defence 1.296 | Samsunspor attack 1.025 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.318. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Samsunspor's projected output up. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 57 games and Samsunspor's last 57.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 22% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 48%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 4.51 | Draw 3.31 | Samsunspor 2.10. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.17 / 1.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 90% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 22% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.17 / Samsunspor 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.957 / def 1.296 | Samsunspor attack 1.025 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Samsunspor xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 22% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Antalyaspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.96) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.02x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 57 games and Samsunspor's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
22%
4.51
30%
3.31
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.92
1.75
Samsunspor xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
25.93
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.75 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 13D 27L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Samsunspor's form line: 26W 16D 15L from 57 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Samsunspor are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 28 home games (12W 6D 10L).
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 12W 9D 7L from their last 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.39 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 26W 16D 15L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Samsunspor's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Antalyaspor have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 4, Samsunspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 68%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Antalyaspor's games and 50% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Antalyaspor's matches and 50% of Samsunspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 71% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 3-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.75 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Samsunspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 22% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 48%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Samsunspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.