Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Samsunspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.00 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Samsunspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Antalyaspor 3W, Samsunspor 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Samsunspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Samsunspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.957 / defence 1.296 | Samsunspor attack 1.025 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.318. Data: 57 Antalyaspor games / 57 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 22% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 48%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Samsunspor 2.08. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 90% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 22% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Antalyaspor 1.17 / Samsunspor 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.957 / def 1.296 | Samsunspor attack 1.025 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Samsunspor xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 22% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Antalyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (5 meetings): Antalyaspor 3W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.96) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.02x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
22%
4.51
30%
3.31
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.92
1.75
Samsunspor xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
25.93
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.75 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 13D 27L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor's form line: 26W 16D 15L from 57 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Samsunspor are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (12W 6D 10L).
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 12W 9D 7L from 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.39 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 26W 16D 15L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Samsunspor's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Antalyaspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Samsunspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 68%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Antalyaspor's games and 50% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Antalyaspor's matches and 50% of Samsunspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 3-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.75 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Samsunspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 22% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 48%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Samsunspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.