Antalyaspor 2-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.50 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Antalyaspor 1W, Samsunspor 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 59% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 52% | Samsunspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.937 / defence 1.002 | Samsunspor attack 0.883 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.207. Samsunspor's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Antalyaspor games / 66 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Samsunspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 70% | Samsunspor 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Antalyaspor 1.17 / Samsunspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.937 / def 1.002 | Samsunspor attack 0.883 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Samsunspor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Antalyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.94) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.88x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.30
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.24
1.07
Samsunspor xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.07 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 19D 25L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Samsunspor's form line: 26W 16D 24L from 66 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.42 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.79 PPG from 33 outings (16W 11D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 8W 9D 16L from 33 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 22W 19D 25L in their last 66 games (1.29 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 26W 16D 24L in their last 66 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.79 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Antalyaspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Samsunspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 61%, Samsunspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Antalyaspor) and 46% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Samsunspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 46% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Samsunspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Samsunspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.77, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Samsunspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG, Samsunspor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.