Antalyaspor 2-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor have collected 0.25 PPG across their last 4 games: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Samsunspor have posted 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Antalyaspor. A 0.55 PPG lead over Samsunspor (0.80 vs 0.25) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 3 away games) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Samsunspor in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antalyaspor 100% and Samsunspor 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 25% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.86 xG and Samsunspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.992 / defence 0.923 | Samsunspor attack 0.965 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.338. Samsunspor's defence rating of 1.351 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antalyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 41 games and Samsunspor's last 4.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 50% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.01 | Draw 3.45 | Samsunspor 4.71. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 3 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 100% (last 3 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 6 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 50% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.86 / Samsunspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.992 / def 0.923 | Samsunspor attack 0.965 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Samsunspor xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 6) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Antalyaspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.99) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.96x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 41 games and Samsunspor's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.45
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.05
1.19
Samsunspor xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
3%
30.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.19 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 0W 3D 1L record — D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Samsunspor's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Antalyaspor are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Samsunspor.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Samsunspor in 75%.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Antalyaspor have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 4, Samsunspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Samsunspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Antalyaspor, 75% for Samsunspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Samsunspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Antalyaspor's games and 75% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antalyaspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 50% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 75% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 2-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.86 xG and Samsunspor 1.19 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.92 against Samsunspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.35, drawn from 41/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 50% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 21%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 25%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Samsunspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 0.75 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Antalyaspor conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.