Antalyaspor 1-0 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Kocaelispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kocaelispor make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Antalyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kocaelispor have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Kocaelispor's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.70 for Kocaelispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Kocaelispor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended Antalyaspor 1–2 Kocaelispor — a Kocaelispor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 52% versus Kocaelispor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 52% | Kocaelispor 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.31 xG and Kocaelispor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.868 / defence 1.223 | Kocaelispor attack 0.685 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.128. Kocaelispor's attack rating of 0.685 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kocaelispor's projected output up. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 69 games and Kocaelispor's last 33.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.40 | Draw 2.89 | Kocaelispor 4.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Kocaelispor 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 34 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.31 / Kocaelispor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.868 / def 1.223 | Kocaelispor attack 0.685 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Kocaelispor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Kocaelispor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 34) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.87x the league average against Kocaelispor's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.69x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 69 games and Kocaelispor's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
42%
2.40
35%
2.89
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.25
0.94
Kocaelispor xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.94 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 7W 8D 18L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Kocaelispor's form line: 9W 10D 14L from 33 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.12 for Kocaelispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 16 home games (4W 4D 8L).
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 3W 5D 8L from their last 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.79 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Kocaelispor
Current Season
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Kocaelispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Kocaelispor
Current Season
❓ Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 7W 8D 18L in their last 33 games (0.88 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor, the earliest from December 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
1
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Antalyaspor 1-0 Kocaelispor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 75%, Kocaelispor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Antalyaspor) and 31% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Antalyaspor's games and 44% of Kocaelispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 31% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Kocaelispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 56% of Kocaelispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Kocaelispor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Kocaelispor 1-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.31 xG and Kocaelispor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Kocaelispor attack 0.69 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Kocaelispor 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 0.88 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.